What’s in store for Ukraine if Tymoshenko wins presidential election

October31200919:45

The victory by Yulia Tymoshenko will bring stability in 2010, with budget consolidation, better terms of crediting and higher influx of capital. As a result, the economy will have better prospects of growing in the second half of 2010 and 2011, Interfax-Ukraina quotes a report by J.P.Morgan Securities Inc. as saying. <P>Despite the election being a neck-to-neck race, the victory of Tymoshenko is more likely, J.P.Morgan Securities experts argue. Simultaneously, they warn that the Yanukovych victory might lead to snap parliamentary elections and termination of Ukraine-IMF cooperation before the country’s economy begins to stabilize in the 4<SUP>th Q of 2010. </P>
<P>According to the report, the main runners in the race will be Viktor Yanukovych (23 to 28% approval rating) and Yulia Tymoshenko (15 to 20% approval rating). The authors, however, remind that Tymoshenko is known for her ability to hike her popularity just before the voting day. </P>
<P>“The two candidates will face each other in the runoff. We believe, Tymoshenko will have an edge over Yanukovych in the runoff but her lead will be slight,” the report says. Neither Arseny Yatseniuk with his dwindling popularity nor Viktor Yushchenko with his 2-3% approval rating will be able to match both of the hot favorites. </P>
<P>One of the potential post-electoral threats may be that the new president won’t be able to form a majority in Verkhovna Rada. It will have an adverse affect and will lead to the continuation of the stand-off between president and the legislature. “Although the Constitution gives enough muscle to the president to obstruct the cabinet’s work, the head of state has no power to implement any reforms without the support from lawmakers, J.PMorgan analysts say. </P>
<P>Failing to consolidate support in VR, the president may call pre-term parliamentary elections. “We believe, Tymoshenko stands a better chance of forming a majority coalition in VR than Yanukovych. Her victory is more likely to bring political stability to Ukraine and allow to continue cooperation with the IMF, the report runs. </P>
<P>“Tymoshenko resolutely supports the presidential form of government. If she succeeds in clearly delineating the powers of the president and parliament, it’ll be her major political achievement, analysts say. The constitutional reform in Ukraine in 2004 clipped the presidential powers, leading to the emergence of two executive branches, something which paralyzed decision-making. </P Print

• 02:0502.11.09 Peter
• • The main thing is to replace Yushchenko.
    
    Whoever is elected in his place must embrace a parliamentary system of governance and work towards establishing political and economic stability.
    
    Both Yulia Tymoshenko and Viktor Yanukovych have previously indicated their policy in support of Ukraine becoming a full parliamentary democracy.
    
    Hopefully they will both honor their commitment and will work towards reaching a agreed position and effective parliamentary reform. Without it Ukraine will continue to flounder
    
    They need to put aside personal power games and act in the best long term interest of Ukraine.