Russia won’t fall out with Ukraine over NATO. Duma’s threats ring hollow, Oleksa Hudyma believes

June04200817:59

This is not the first threat emanating from Russia. But this one is the most ridiculous [Duma’s proposal to Russia president and government to withdraw from the treaty of friendship and cooperation with Ukraine if Kyiv goes ahead with its NATO accession plans – Ed.] No strategic treaty on cooperation can replace normal pragmatic relations. As a pragmatist, I believe that the best agreement with Russia is a strategic contract to supply gas, lawmaker and presidential adviser on energy policy Oleksa Hudyma told ZIK June 4.

According to O. Hudyma, such statements by Russia are merely political pressure, as the Kremlin won’t be able to do anything bad to Ukraine if Ukraine pursues a consistent policy.

In the Treaty of Friendship and Cooperation there’s too much politics and too little economics, O. Hudyma opines. He is sure that Russia cannot do without Ukraine’s pipelines and underground gas reservoirs. However, Ukraine cannot also do without the Russian gas. As long as Ukraine does not unilaterally raise its gas-pumping rates, Russia will sit tight. Simultaneously, Ukraine wrested an agreement from the Russian president and premier to have a 5-year adaptation period to switch to world prices for gas. Currently, Gazprom and Naftohaz are working on it. This is real politics. Tymoshenko offered Putin the stability he needs,” Hudyma opined.

Oleksa Hudyma also commented to ZIK on future gas prices which Russia will set for Ukraine within the next 5 years. If Ukraine’s signs an agreement on a 5-year adaptation period, Russia will offer an annual $30 rise in price. “At present, Ukraine buys gas at the price which is two-thirds below the average European price. If the remainder, or $150, is divided by 5, we get $30 or a yearly increment for Ukraine. So, if the price now is $179.5 per 1,000 c.m., next year it will be about $200. However, I would like to stress that the price will grow by $30 every year only if dynamics of world market gas prices tally with our predictions,” O. Hudyma observed.

Comment by ZIK

According to a June 4 report by The Ukrayinska Pravda /www.pravda.com.ua/news/2008/6/4/76995.htm),Russia’s Duma proposed to the president and premier to consider pulling out of the treaty on friendship and cooperation with Ukraine if Kyiv implements its plans on entering NATO.

“If Ukraine gets MAP or takes other steps to join NATO, we must view it as Ukraine’s unilateral withdrawal from the treaty,” Duma’s statement to the president runs. The statement was endorsed on the heels of parliamentary hearings in Duma on April 1, 2008.
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